Football · Argentina Nacional B · 04/07, 20:30
Almagro vs Atletico Rafaela
Expected goals: 1.58 (Almagro 0.8 · Atletico Rafaela 0.78). The model gives 33% home, 36% draw, 31% away. Under 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 0-0.
33%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Almagro 1511 · Atletico Rafaela 1509
| Almagro | Draw | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 38% | 30% |
| Market | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.58 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.58Almagro 0.8 · Atletico Rafaela 0.78
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 86%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Almagro: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Almagro | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6 | 2.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Almagro 4–1–1 Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Almagro |
| 19/08/24 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Almagro |
| 30/03/24 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 17/04/22 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 28/08/21 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 18/04/21 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Almagro |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | San Martin SJ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Almagro | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 22 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Patronato Parana | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Almagro | Atletico Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| CA Atlanta | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Agropecuario | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Nueva Chicago | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-6 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Almagro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 12/05 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 1-6 | 11 | 2 | L |
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 21/04 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 10 | W |