Football · Argentina Nacional B · 04/07, 20:30
Nueva Chicago vs CA Guemes
Expected goals: 1.95 (Nueva Chicago 1.23 · CA Guemes 0.72). The model gives 48% home, 31% draw, 21% away. Over 1.5 goals (56%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-0.
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nueva Chicago 1473 · CA Guemes 1447
| Nueva Chicago | Draw | CA Guemes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 32% | 20% |
| Market | 48% | 31% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.95Nueva Chicago 1.23 · CA Guemes 0.72
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 56%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CA Guemes: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nueva Chicago | CA Guemes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nueva Chicago 1–0–3 CA Guemes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA Guemes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nueva Chicago |
| 16/09/23 Argentina Nacional B | CA Guemes | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nueva Chicago |
| 06/05/23 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CA Guemes |
| 28/06/22 Argentina Nacional B | Nueva Chicago | 0-2 HT 0-0 | CA Guemes |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | San Martin SJ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Almagro | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 22 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Patronato Parana | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nueva Chicago | CA Guemes |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Club Atletico Temperley | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Deportivo Maipu | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Almagro | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Patronato Parana | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| CA Colegiales | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Quilmes | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Ferrocarril Midland | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nueva Chicago
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/05 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 14/04 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 10 | D |
CA Guemes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 14/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |