Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 04/07, 14:00

FC Lahti vs IF Gnistan

Expected goals: 2.37 (FC Lahti 1.26 · IF Gnistan 1.11). The model gives 39% home, 29% draw, 32% away. Under 2.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.

39%1

39% 29% 32%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lahti 1492 · IF Gnistan 1546

	FC Lahti	Draw	IF Gnistan
Our model	38%	30%	31%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.37FC Lahti 1.26 · IF Gnistan 1.11

Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%

BTTSYes · 52%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1492 vs 1546).
H2H favours IF Gnistan: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lahti	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.30 → 2.30 – 0%

X 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

2 2.80 → 2.80 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lahti 1–3–2 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
22/02/26 Finland Liigacup	IF Gnistan	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
05/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Lahti
19/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	3-3 HT 1-2	IF Gnistan
02/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Lahti
17/02/24 Finland Liigacup	IF Gnistan	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Lahti

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	15	8	6	1	27	15	30
2	FC Inter	15	8	6	1	23	12	30
3	AC Oulu	14	8	2	4	20	15	26
4	HJK Helsinki	14	6	4	4	25	17	22
5	VPS Vaasa	13	5	6	2	17	11	21
6	IF Gnistan	13	5	4	4	19	17	19
7	TPS	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
8	FC Ilves	14	4	4	6	24	27	16
9	FC Lahti	13	3	4	6	15	15	13
10	SJK	13	2	5	6	15	21	11
11	FF Jaro	14	1	5	8	13	31	8
12	IFK Mariehamn	13	0	4	9	6	25	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lahti	IF Gnistan
TPS	0-0 D	1-1 D
SJK	2-3 L	3-2 W
FC Ilves	2-5 L	0-2 L
IFK Mariehamn	1-0 W	3-0 W
VPS Vaasa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Lahti

WDLWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
13/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
10/06	FC Ilves Finland Cup	2-4	2-5	3	9	L
30/05	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
26/05	IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/05	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
18/05	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
13/05	MP Finland Cup	1-1	3-1	9	1	W

IF Gnistan

DWDWLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
23/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
30/05	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
23/05	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
16/05	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
09/05	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
05/05	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	0	2	W
24/04	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	2	9	D