Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 04/07, 16:00

SJK vs TPS

Expected goals: 2.44 (SJK 1.61 · TPS 0.83). The model gives 55% home, 26% draw, 19% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-0.

55%1

55% 26% 19%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK 1481 · TPS 1500

	SJK	Draw	TPS
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.44SJK 1.61 · TPS 0.83

Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 50%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK	TPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.65 → 1.65 – 0%

X 3.70 → 3.70 – 0%

2 4.75 → 4.75 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK 3–0–3 TPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	TPS	2-0 HT 1-0	SJK
11/03/23 Europe Friendlies	SJK	3-2 HT 2-2	TPS
31/10/20 Finland Veikkausliiga	TPS	1-0 HT 0-0	SJK
01/07/20 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	1-0 HT 1-0	TPS
15/03/19 Europe Friendlies	TPS	1-0 HT 1-0	SJK
13/09/18 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	1-0 HT 1-0	TPS

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	15	8	6	1	27	15	30
2	FC Inter	15	8	6	1	23	12	30
3	AC Oulu	14	8	2	4	20	15	26
4	HJK Helsinki	14	6	4	4	25	17	22
5	VPS Vaasa	13	5	6	2	17	11	21
6	IF Gnistan	13	5	4	4	19	17	19
7	TPS	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
8	FC Ilves	14	4	4	6	24	27	16
9	FC Lahti	13	3	4	6	15	15	13
10	SJK	13	2	5	6	15	21	11
11	FF Jaro	14	1	5	8	13	31	8
12	IFK Mariehamn	13	0	4	9	6	25	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK	TPS
FC Ilves	2-2 D	0-1 L
FC Inter	1-1 D	1-2 L
VPS Vaasa	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Lahti	3-2 W	0-0 D
AC Oulu	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SJK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SJK

WLLWLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	0	8	D
17/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
13/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
10/06	FC Inter Finland Cup	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
30/05	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	9	5	L
26/05	SJK II Finland Cup	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
23/05	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
12/05	PEPO Finland Cup	2-0	3-0	7	4	W

TPS

WWLLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	3-2	4	3	W
23/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
17/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
13/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
30/05	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/05	FC Ilves Finland Cup	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
23/05	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
16/05	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
13/05	HJS Finland Cup	1-0	3-0	13	4	W
08/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W