Football · Norway Division 1 · 03/07, 18:00
Kongsvinger vs Sogndal
Expected goals: 4.08 (Kongsvinger 2.53 · Sogndal 1.55). The model gives 58% home, 20% draw, 22% away. Over 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kongsvinger 1543 · Sogndal 1498
| Kongsvinger | Draw | Sogndal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.08Kongsvinger 2.53 · Sogndal 1.55
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1543 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Sogndal: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kongsvinger | Sogndal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 50/0/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.3 | 2.8 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kongsvinger 1–3–2 Sogndal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/25 Norway Division 1 | Sogndal | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Kongsvinger |
| 14/06/25 Norway Division 1 | Kongsvinger | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Sogndal |
| 07/05/25 Norway Cup | Sogndal | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Kongsvinger |
| 02/11/24 Norway Division 1 | Kongsvinger | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sogndal |
| 22/06/24 Norway Division 1 | Sogndal | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Kongsvinger |
| 19/08/23 Norway Division 1 | Sogndal | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Kongsvinger |
Standings · Norway Division 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stromsgodset | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 28 |
| 3 | Kongsvinger | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Odd BK | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Ranheim | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 20 |
| 7 | Sandnes Ulf | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Hodd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Moss | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 10 | Egersund | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Bryne | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 15 |
| 13 | Asane | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | Strommen | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 11 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | Lyn 1896 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kongsvinger | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|
| Haugesund | 2-4 L | 5-1 W |
| Hodd | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Asane | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Stabaek | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Egersund | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Strommen | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sogndal (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kongsvinger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Hodd Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Ranheim Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/05 | Egersund Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
Sogndal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Egersund Norway Division 1 |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Raufoss Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Moss Norway Division 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Hodd Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Bryne Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |