Football · Norway Division 1 · 03/07, 19:00
Ranheim vs Stabaek
Expected goals: 3.48 (Ranheim 1.66 · Stabaek 1.82). The model gives 35% home, 24% draw, 41% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
41%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ranheim 1491 · Stabaek 1547
| Ranheim | Draw | Stabaek | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | 35% | 24% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.48Ranheim 1.66 · Stabaek 1.82
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (rating 1491 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Stabaek: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ranheim | Stabaek | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 2.3 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 6.2 | 2.4 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ranheim 2–1–3 Stabaek
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Norway Division 1 | Ranheim | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Stabaek |
| 28/06/25 Norway Division 1 | Stabaek | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ranheim |
| 10/08/24 Norway Division 1 | Stabaek | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Ranheim |
| 22/05/24 Norway Division 1 | Ranheim | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Stabaek |
| 16/10/22 Norway Division 1 | Stabaek | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Ranheim |
| 09/05/22 Norway Division 1 | Ranheim | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Stabaek |
Standings · Norway Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stromsgodset | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 28 |
| 3 | Kongsvinger | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Odd BK | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Ranheim | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 20 |
| 7 | Sandnes Ulf | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Hodd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Moss | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 10 | Egersund | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Bryne | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 15 |
| 13 | Asane | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | Strommen | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 11 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | Lyn 1896 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ranheim | Stabaek |
|---|---|---|
| Lyn 1896 | 3-2 W | 4-0 W |
| Haugesund | 1-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Strommen | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Sandnes Ulf | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Kongsvinger | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Moss | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ranheim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Hodd Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Kongsvinger Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/05 | Moss Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Stabaek
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Bryne Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Egersund Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Moss Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Kongsvinger Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Sogndal Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 16 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Raufoss Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |