Football · Norway Division 1 · 04/07, 16:00
Hodd vs Stromsgodset
Expected goals: 3.43 (Hodd 1.08 · Stromsgodset 2.35). The model gives 15% home, 20% draw, 65% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-2.
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hodd 1516 · Stromsgodset 1577
| Hodd | Draw | Stromsgodset | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 65% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.43Hodd 1.08 · Stromsgodset 2.35
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stromsgodset (rating 1516 vs 1577).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hodd | Stromsgodset | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 3.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 3.3 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Standings · Norway Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stromsgodset | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 28 |
| 3 | Kongsvinger | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Odd BK | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Ranheim | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 20 |
| 7 | Sandnes Ulf | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Hodd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Moss | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 10 | Egersund | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Bryne | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 15 |
| 13 | Asane | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | Strommen | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 11 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | Lyn 1896 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hodd | Stromsgodset |
|---|---|---|
| Odd BK | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Kongsvinger | 1-2 L | 4-4 D |
| Bryne | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Egersund | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Ranheim | 2-3 L | 5-4 W |
| Strommen | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Asane | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Raufoss | 1-1 D | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 6 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Stromsgodset (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hodd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Kongsvinger Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Bryne Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Egersund Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Ranheim Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Sogndal Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Raufoss Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Stromsgodset
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Kongsvinger Norway Division 1 |
2-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Raufoss Norway Division 1 |
2-1 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Egersund Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Bryne Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Moss Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Ranheim Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 5-4 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |