Football · Norway Division 1 · 04/07, 14:00
Egersund vs Moss
Expected goals: 3.69 (Egersund 2.06 · Moss 1.63). The model gives 47% home, 24% draw, 30% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Egersund 1452 · Moss 1463
| Egersund | Draw | Moss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.69Egersund 2.06 · Moss 1.63
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Egersund: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Egersund | Moss | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.5 | 1.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.2 | 3.5 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Egersund 4–1–1 Moss
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/25 Norway Division 1 | Egersund | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Moss |
| 28/06/25 Norway Division 1 | Moss | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Egersund |
| 26/08/24 Norway Division 1 | Egersund | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Moss |
| 27/04/24 Norway Division 1 | Moss | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Egersund |
| 08/10/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Egersund | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Moss |
| 26/06/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Moss | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Egersund |
Standings · Norway Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stromsgodset | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 28 |
| 3 | Kongsvinger | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Odd BK | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Ranheim | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 29 | 20 |
| 7 | Sandnes Ulf | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Hodd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Moss | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 10 | Egersund | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| 11 | Bryne | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 15 |
| 13 | Asane | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | Strommen | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 11 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | Lyn 1896 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Egersund | Moss |
|---|---|---|
| Sogndal | 2-4 L | 4-2 W |
| Haugesund | 5-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Stabaek | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Stromsgodset | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Lyn 1896 | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Sandnes Ulf | 2-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Odd BK | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Moss (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Egersund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sogndal Norway Division 1 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
3-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 25/05 | Hodd Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 15/05 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Raufoss Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Kongsvinger Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Moss
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Strommen Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Sogndal Norway Division 1 |
3-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Odd BK Norway Division 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Bryne Norway Division 1 |
0-3 | 2-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Ranheim Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |