Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 03/07, 20:45
Treaty United FC vs Kerry FC
Expected goals: 2.29 (Treaty United FC 1.19 · Kerry FC 1.1). The model gives 37% home, 30% draw, 33% away. Over 2.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
37%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Treaty United FC 1471 · Kerry FC 1515
| Treaty United FC | Draw | Kerry FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.29Treaty United FC 1.19 · Kerry FC 1.1
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kerry FC (rating 1471 vs 1515).
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Treaty United FC | Kerry FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Treaty United FC 1–4–1 Kerry FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Treaty United FC |
| 06/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Treaty United FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Kerry FC |
| 13/01/26 Europe Friendlies | Kerry FC | 2-4 HT 1-0 | Treaty United FC |
| 26/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Treaty United FC |
| 04/08/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Treaty United FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Kerry FC |
| 09/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Kerry FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Treaty United FC |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 11 | 51 |
| 2 | UCD | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 31 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
| 5 | Wexford FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | Kerry FC | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 25 |
| 7 | Longford Town | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Athlone Town | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 19 |
| 10 | Treaty United FC | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Treaty United FC | Kerry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wexford FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Cork City | 0-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Bray Wanderers | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Longford Town | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Cobh Ramblers | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Finn Harps | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Athlone Town | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Kerry FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Treaty United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 29/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 04/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 12 | D |
Kerry FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/06 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |