Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 04/07, 20:30
Longford Town vs UCD
Expected goals: 2.67 (Longford Town 1.08 · UCD 1.59). The model gives 25% home, 27% draw, 48% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
48%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Longford Town 1489 · UCD 1533
| Longford Town | Draw | UCD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.67Longford Town 1.08 · UCD 1.59
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCD (rating 1489 vs 1533).
- H2H favours UCD: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Longford Town | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/0/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.8 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Longford Town 0–2–4 UCD
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Longford Town |
| 07/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCD |
| 12/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Longford Town |
| 28/06/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 0-2 HT 0-0 | UCD |
| 09/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Longford Town |
| 12/04/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UCD |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 11 | 51 |
| 2 | UCD | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 31 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
| 5 | Wexford FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | Kerry FC | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 25 |
| 7 | Longford Town | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Athlone Town | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 19 |
| 10 | Treaty United FC | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Longford Town | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry FC | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Bray Wanderers | 2-5 L | 3-4 L |
| Cobh Ramblers | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Treaty United FC | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Finn Harps | 2-2 D | 5-0 W |
| Cork City | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Wexford FC | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Athlone Town | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: UCD (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Longford Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 19/06 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
UCD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-4 | 3-4 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/04 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |