Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 03/07, 20:45
Drogheda United vs Bohemians Dublin
Expected goals: 2.8 (Drogheda United 1.04 · Bohemians Dublin 1.76). The model gives 21% home, 25% draw, 53% away. Over 2.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Drogheda United 1455 · Bohemians Dublin 1549
| Drogheda United | Draw | Bohemians Dublin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.8Drogheda United 1.04 · Bohemians Dublin 1.76
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bohemians Dublin (rating 1455 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Drogheda United: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Drogheda United | Bohemians Dublin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 3.2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Drogheda United 3–1–2 Bohemians Dublin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Drogheda United |
| 03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 01/11/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 01/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Drogheda United |
| 23/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Drogheda United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bohemians Dublin |
| 03/03/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Bohemians Dublin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Drogheda United |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 40 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 38 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 35 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 33 | 34 | 31 |
| 6 | Derry City | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 34 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | 22 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 20 |
| 10 | Waterford FC | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 44 | 17 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Drogheda United | Bohemians Dublin |
|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Shelbourne | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| St Patricks | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Dundalk | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Sligo Rovers | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bohemians Dublin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Drogheda United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 22/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Bohemians Dublin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 19/06 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |