Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 03/07, 20:45
St Patricks vs Galway United
Expected goals: 2.39 (St Patricks 1.75 · Galway United 0.64). The model gives 65% home, 22% draw, 13% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Patricks 1520 · Galway United 1473
| St Patricks | Draw | Galway United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.39St Patricks 1.75 · Galway United 0.64
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Patricks (rating 1520 vs 1473).
- H2H favours St Patricks: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Patricks | Galway United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.9 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Patricks 2–3–1 Galway United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Galway United | 2-2 HT 0-1 | St Patricks |
| 02/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Galway United |
| 19/09/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Galway United |
| 14/09/25 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | St Patricks | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Galway United |
| 20/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Galway United | 3-1 HT 3-1 | St Patricks |
| 02/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Galway United |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 40 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 38 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 35 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 33 | 34 | 31 |
| 6 | Derry City | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 34 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | 22 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 20 |
| 10 | Waterford FC | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 44 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Patricks | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| Bohemians Dublin | 0-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Sligo Rovers | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Shamrock Rovers | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Dundalk | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Derry City | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Shelbourne | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Waterford FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Patricks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 15/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 08/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
Galway United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 16 | 3 | D |