Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 03/07, 20:45

Shelbourne vs Dundalk

Expected goals: 2.77 (Shelbourne 1.52 · Dundalk 1.25). The model gives 43% home, 26% draw, 31% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

43%1

43% 26% 31%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shelbourne 1501 · Dundalk 1510

	Shelbourne	Draw	Dundalk
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.77Shelbourne 1.52 · Dundalk 1.25

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 55%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shelbourne	Dundalk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.10 → 2.10 – 0%

X 3.60 → 3.60 – 0%

2 2.90 → 2.90 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shelbourne 3–0–3 Dundalk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Dundalk	1-2 HT 0-1	Shelbourne
14/04/26 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup	Dundalk	3-1 HT 2-0	Shelbourne
03/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	2-3 HT 0-2	Dundalk
13/01/26 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup	Dundalk	3-1 HT 1-0	Shelbourne
30/08/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Dundalk	0-1 HT 0-1	Shelbourne
07/06/24 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Shelbourne	1-0 HT 0-0	Dundalk

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	24	14	5	5	38	21	47
2	Bohemians Dublin	24	11	7	6	38	27	40
3	St Patricks	22	11	5	6	35	19	38
4	Dundalk	22	9	8	5	36	32	35
5	Shelbourne	23	7	10	6	33	34	31
6	Derry City	24	6	11	7	30	27	29
7	Galway United	21	6	6	9	29	34	24
8	Drogheda United	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
9	Sligo Rovers	22	5	5	12	17	35	20
10	Waterford FC	22	3	8	11	28	44	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shelbourne	Dundalk
Bohemians Dublin	0-3 L	2-1 W
Drogheda United	2-2 D	1-1 D
Shamrock Rovers	2-1 W	1-0 W
Galway United	1-1 D	1-0 W
Derry City	0-0 D	2-1 W
Waterford FC	2-1 W	2-3 L
St Patricks	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dundalk (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shelbourne

DDWWDDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-2	14	2	D
22/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
19/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-2	2-2	1	4	D
12/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
29/05	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
25/05	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
22/05	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	4	10	W
08/05	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-0	15	2	D
04/05	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	2-2	3	5	D

Dundalk

LDLWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
19/06	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
12/06	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
29/05	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
26/05	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
22/05	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
15/05	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/05	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-3	2	8	L
04/05	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-1	3-3	11	5	D
01/05	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-2	5	9	L