Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 03/07, 20:45
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers
Expected goals: 2.6 (Sligo Rovers 0.8 · Shamrock Rovers 1.8). The model gives 16% home, 24% draw, 60% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-1.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sligo Rovers 1452 · Shamrock Rovers 1551
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Shamrock Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Market | 16% | 23% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.6Sligo Rovers 0.8 · Shamrock Rovers 1.8
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shamrock Rovers (rating 1452 vs 1551).
- H2H favours Sligo Rovers: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sligo Rovers | Shamrock Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sligo Rovers 3–1–2 Shamrock Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Shamrock Rovers | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 13/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Shamrock Rovers |
| 01/11/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Shamrock Rovers | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sligo Rovers |
| 05/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Shamrock Rovers |
| 05/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Shamrock Rovers | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 03/03/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Shamrock Rovers |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Bohemians Dublin | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 40 |
| 3 | St Patricks | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 38 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 35 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 33 | 34 | 31 |
| 6 | Derry City | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30 | 27 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 34 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | 22 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 20 |
| 10 | Waterford FC | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 44 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sligo Rovers | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| St Patricks | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Waterford FC | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Bohemians Dublin | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Galway United | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Drogheda United | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Dundalk | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Shamrock Rovers (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sligo Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 1-4 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 04/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Shamrock Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 22/06 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |