Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 02:30
Denton Diablos FC vs West Texas FC
Expected goals: 3.67 (Denton Diablos FC 2.21 · West Texas FC 1.46). The model gives 54% home, 22% draw, 24% away. Over 3 goals (57%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denton Diablos FC 1564 · West Texas FC 1497
| Denton Diablos FC | Draw | West Texas FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.67Denton Diablos FC 2.21 · West Texas FC 1.46
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 57%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denton Diablos FC (rating 1564 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Denton Diablos FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Denton Diablos FC | West Texas FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 3 | 0.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Denton Diablos FC 3–1–2 West Texas FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 USA USL League Two | West Texas FC | 5-5 HT 1-2 | Denton Diablos FC |
| 24/05/26 USA USL League Two | Denton Diablos FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | West Texas FC |
| 14/07/24 USA NPSL | West Texas FC | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Denton Diablos FC |
| 30/06/24 USA NPSL | West Texas FC | 6-3 HT 2-2 | Denton Diablos FC |
| 24/05/24 USA NPSL | Denton Diablos FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | West Texas FC |
| 25/05/23 USA NPSL | Denton Diablos FC | 3-2 HT 3-1 | West Texas FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Ranger Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McKinney Chupacabras FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Denton Diablos FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Texoma FC | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | West Texas FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 9 |
| 5 | Lubbock Matadors SC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| 6 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Denton Diablos FC | West Texas FC |
|---|---|---|
| McKinney Chupacabras FC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Lubbock Matadors SC | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Texoma FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Fort Worth Vaqueros FC | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Denton Diablos FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denton Diablos FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | West Texas FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 5-5 | – | – | D |
| 23/06 | McKinney Chupacabras FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Lubbock Matadors SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Texoma FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Lubbock Matadors SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Texoma FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | West Texas FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | McKinney Chupacabras FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 15/07 | McKinney Chupacabras FC USA USL League Two |
5-0 | 11-0 | – | – | W |
West Texas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Denton Diablos FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 5-5 | – | – | D |
| 25/06 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | McKinney Chupacabras FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Texoma FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | McKinney Chupacabras FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/06 | Texoma FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Lubbock Matadors SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Denton Diablos FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/07 | Lubbock Matadors SC USA NPSL |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 10/07 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC USA NPSL |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |