Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 03/07, 20:45
Bray Wanderers vs Athlone Town
Expected goals: 3.17 (Bray Wanderers 1.98 · Athlone Town 1.2). The model gives 54% home, 24% draw, 21% away. Under 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bray Wanderers 1554 · Athlone Town 1448
| Bray Wanderers | Draw | Athlone Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.17Bray Wanderers 1.98 · Athlone Town 1.2
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bray Wanderers (rating 1554 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Bray Wanderers: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bray Wanderers | Athlone Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.5 | 2.4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bray Wanderers 5–0–1 Athlone Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Athlone Town | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bray Wanderers |
| 06/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Athlone Town |
| 05/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Athlone Town |
| 27/06/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Athlone Town | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Bray Wanderers |
| 16/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Bray Wanderers | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Athlone Town |
| 04/04/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Athlone Town | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bray Wanderers |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 11 | 51 |
| 2 | UCD | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 31 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
| 5 | Wexford FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | Kerry FC | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 25 |
| 7 | Longford Town | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Athlone Town | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 19 |
| 10 | Treaty United FC | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bray Wanderers | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Cork City | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Longford Town | 5-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Treaty United FC | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Wexford FC | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Kerry FC | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| UCD | 4-3 W | 0-1 L |
| Cobh Ramblers | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Finn Harps | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 4 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Bray Wanderers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bray Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 5-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 29/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
4-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 08/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 12 | D |
Athlone Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 12 | D |
| 19/06 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 12/06 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 04/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |